Early numeracy trajectories and mathematics outcomes in indonesia: evidence from a one-year longitudinal study

Abstract

This study investigates the development of early numeracy (EN) skills among Indonesian primary school students and examines how maternal education influences children’s numeracy trajectories and subsequent mathematics achievement. Using a longitudinal design with three measurement points (T1–T3) across one academic year, data were collected from 25 students in early primary grades. Results revealed a linear increase in early numeracy, with substantial variability in both initial levels and growth rates. A partial catch-up effect was observed, where students with lower initial EN demonstrated faster growth, although early disparities remained. Maternal education significantly predicted initial EN levels but not growth rate, indicating that home educational background affects numeracy readiness rather than learning pace. Furthermore, initial EN strongly predicted end-of-year mathematics performance, confirming the long-term influence of early numeracy foundations. These findings underscore the need for structured early numeracy curricula, standardized screening systems, and early interventions to support equitable mathematical development in Indonesia.